The Boeing 737 MAX: Is The Problem With The Plane Or The Pilots?

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It’s a new airplane from one of the world’s premier manufacturers, and two have fallen from the sky within five months of each other, killing 346

Boeing 737 MAX 8
Photo: Depositphotos.com/nelsonart
Boeing 737 MAX 8

The causes and the question of whether the accidents are related are of intense concern to travelers, airlines and Boeing, whose stock dropped 5% Monday, a day after the crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 that prompted China, Indonesia and a handful of airlines in other countries to ground the plane.

But some analysts and safety experts say there’s no evidence yet to conclude that Boeing’s bestselling plane has deep problems.

“Right now the facts don’t support grounding the airplane,” says John Goglia, a former accident investigator and board member at the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

There may not be much of an impact on Boeing’s bottom line. Deliveries are unlikely to be delayed unless more airlines pull the plane out of service, says Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group. Most of the airlines that had been planning big orders for new single-aisle planes have already put them in, he says. “Nobody’s going to walk away from existing orders since there are no indications that there is something fundamentally wrong with the design of the plane.”

The Ethiopian Airlines crash followed that of a Lion Air 737 MAX 8 on October 29 in Indonesia. Investigators haven’t issued their final determination on that earlier crash, but safety experts say there’s reason to suspect that the pilots’ training and experience played a significant role, and that may be the case as well in the Ethiopia crash.

Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed Sunday six minutes after takeoff from Addis Ababa, with satellite tracking data suggesting the pilots struggled to control the airplane. Similar to the Lion Air crash, the Ethiopian jet's rate of climb varied erratically, with the nose alternately tilting up and dropping down. The throttle was advanced to provide strong thrust, and the periods with a high rate of climb suggest to Goglia that the captain may have turned off the automatic pitch-trim correction controls that have been a focus of the Lion Air crash investigation. However the plane only gained around 1,200 feet in altitude before it crashed, and the open throttle pushed the plane to a dangerously high airspeed of about 440 miles per hour.

While Ethiopian has a strong reputation for safety, the airline has been expanding rapidly at a time of rising demand for pilots worldwide, and experts have questioned the experience of those commanding Flight 302. Ethiopian Airlines said the copilot, Ahmed Nur Mohammod Nur, only had 200 hours of flight time, a sharp contrast with the U.S., where 1,500 hours is required to take the second seat on a commercial plane.

The captain, Yared Getachew, 29, was the youngest to command a 737 at Ethiopian Airlines, relatives told the media. He had more than 8,000 hours of flight time, according to the airline, which is a fair amount for his age, says Keith Mackey, a Florida-based safety consultant who’s a former airline pilot and accident investigator. Whether the experience he had was sufficient to handle the 737 MAX depends on what planes he flew previously and for how long: more automated Airbus models or the older 737. Details of Getachew’s experience have yet to be made public.

In the case of the Lion Air crash, a preliminary report from Indonesian investigators suggests that the plane’s pilots struggled with an automatic anti-stall system that appears to have engaged because of erroneous readings from an angle of attack sensor, pushing the plane into a dive.

It’s unknown yet whether those controls, called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), played a role in the Ethiopia disaster.

Boeing has faced accusations that it failed to properly inform pilots and airlines of the MCAS anti-stall controls, which are new to the 737 MAX. Boeing has said that pilot manuals already contained instructions on how to override other automatic pitch-trim systems that could push the aircraft’s nose down, steps that also turn off the MCAS.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said Monday that there was no evidence yet that would lead it to ground the 737 MAX 8, and that it expected to mandate software updates to the MCAS by the end of April.

Mackey and Goglia say that properly trained pilots would have been able to recognize the aural and visual warnings and hit the switches to deactivate the pitch-trim systems. “It calls into question their training,” says Goglia. “There are too many indicators that call into question factors other than the airplane.”

Air travel is booming worldwide, with rising wealth giving more people money to fly, and more efficient jet engines are enabling airlines to drive down the cost of a ticket. The annual number of airline passengers is forecast to double to 8.2 billion worldwide by 2037, with 54% of the growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region. Consequently, airlines in developing countries are expanding rapidly, and pilots are in high demand.

 “The question of the quality of the pilots available to be hired is a concern for many people,” says Goglia.

In developing countries with small military and private aviation sectors, pilots can end up at the controls of large aircraft with fewer flight hours than in the West, according to Mackey. Those same factors limit the pool of trained mechanics, which can lead to systematic maintenance issues at growing airlines.

The Lion Air plane’s angle of attack sensor had registered incorrect airspeed readings on the four flights prior to the crash, according to the Indonesia National Transportation Safety Committee, and Lion Air said the sensor had been replaced the day before.

Boeing and Airbus have been automating more functions on their planes at the same time that an increasing proportion of their sales have been going to younger airlines in developing countries, and Boeing’s decision not to inform airlines of the new anti-stall system is part and parcel of that, says Mackey. “Boeing is trying not to confuse them with a lot of additional information. Boeing figured this will just be something that happens automatically and the crew won’t have to know about it,” says Mackey. “And now Boeing’s on the carpet for it. It’s a complicated issue.”

Jeremy Bogaisky, Forbes Staff

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